Author Archives: imbangklase

About imbangklase

I'm a business-minded person still stuck in school. I used to be a hardcore athlete, but certain incidents made me shift my path. There are many challenges that I have yet to conquer. To succeed, I know that I have to get through my biggest enemy.... ME. :) Garnering some knowledge and experience in my training stint with one of the international brokerages in the Philippines, I now start my venture in the stock market--trying to be a successful "Swing Trader".

Shabu Analysis: $AT, $PGOLD, $2GO, $LR, $IRC

Here are some stocks that I have sniffed–sensing some trails of SHABU potential within them.

You may be wondering where the hell I get these stock picks. Sometimes I use my favorite dart set to hit on my wall filled with stock codes. Sometimes I use my proprietary SHABU system to identify plays, I just don’t post my methodology in public because my momma will get mad

All that you will see in SHABU ANALYSIS are merely Price + Volume, some lines, and some ranges in the form of rectangular boxes, because most of the time I’m too high and drunk to look at complicated indicators.


$AT

at nov

11.50-11.70 should hold, otherwise we may see this lower towards a 10-10.50 range. Anyway, might be worth a shot bottom picking as it finds its base. Of course, check out sentiment on variables such as copper price, mining industry as a whole, mining regulations, etc


$PGOLD
Weekly 

pgold weekly nov

 Daily

pgold daily

So far it has held it’s respective support levels. it may be worth accumulating around 33-34 (if it pulls back) otherwise we may have seen the bottom already at 31-32.  May re-visit 38-40. I think retailers have been quite under-appreciated already. Maybe come Dec to Jan we can see some lovin again


$2GO

2go nov

Not much attention on this one, but it is slowly creeping up. We are on a critical range of 2.60-2.80, if it successfully breaks past that range then I see it going 3.00+. I see strong potential on this one. Let’s see. 🙂

Company seems to be on a turnaround mode as it releases Q3 earnings. 

Current YTD vs Previous YTD Net Income is 622m vs 378m. That’s approximately a 65% growth vs the same period last year.

(Stats are in thousands / 000’s)

2go funda


$IRC

irc nov

Little noise. Perfect. I think this will go into a higher range soon. 1.60 then easy 1.70.


Lastly,

$LR

lr nov

My high conviction bet has finally shown its potential.. 12.00 is around the corner. (which is within its all time highs.)

LR has the components of a stock that you hold tight (specially if you were accumulating with us at 8-9+), I have no targets for this one. Maybe 15? Don’t know, am just holding this one.

That’s the advantage of accumulating early.. before the crowd. By the time the story is exposed, everyone is scrimping for shares while we’re just sipping beer chilling with chicks.

Congrats to all my clients and friends, who stood by this stock.


(you may check my last month’s post on $IRC & LR in SHABU analysis HERE)


I like to keep my shit simple, no need to make it fancy.

Note: this aint a reco to buy/sell shit, take these as references, and for entertainment. Act on your own judgement.

Feel free to subscribe if you want to hear more of my thoughts.

Charts are provided by: http://investagrams.com/ 

Sa mga chicks or for those who have queries, questions, suggestions, trashtalks, you may hit me up on my facebook account

November: Shabu Overdosed Market

Picking up from my last post regarding my strategy for September, I’ve manage to be lucky and correctly call the basura + gaming craze. I’ve iterated countless times on my FB that it’s all about gaming and basura names (because everything else sucked)


At some point I was betting on an index bounce, but I was mistaken. I tried buying into a mainstream name $ALI–here’s what happened:

ALI

I put a bet on ALI, but was stopped out at 33, 32.70, took a hit there, but as usual, it’s part of the game. When I’m wrong, I take my losses immediately. It’s my usual mistake of being careless and impatient after coming from a winning streak.

taeali


After that I re-organized and shifted back to my original game plan which was BASURA + GAMING. It all started again with the leader, $IS.

isboss

Basically the SHABU portfolio, literally went into SHABU mode, focusing mostly on SHABU names: $IS, $UNI, $SFI, $MED

UNICORN

sfihotdog

medbola

Here are some of the screenies I was able to take, I wasn’t able to record much though because I was juggling between trading Basuras and focusing on my Chartered Market Technician (CMT level 1 Exam) review, fortunately I was able to pass. My main focus during those times was to survive, and milk as much money as I could, while not being too preoccupied.

IS lol

oct 30

uni

As for the selling, I’ll keep that to myself 😉 You well know where these stocks went anyway.

Take note though… I do not advocate trading BASURA stocks. Specially for the newbies.
It’s just that the whole INDEX sucked during the month of October. Most blues just sucked. So I didn’t bother.

My system is simple, go with the leaders, go where the money is going, go where “strong trends” are potentially forming.


Basuras went to a temporary climax. As it became a stupid monkey’s game. Anyone and everyone was just cheering, throwing darts, betting blindly, hyping, and what not. Even fundamentally principled traders were betting on basuras. Imagine how the BASURA craze could turn people into drug junkies and hypocrites. (nothing wrong with that, anyone can do anything, but it gave me a big clue that the SHABU phase was about to end, or pause.)

From time to time you’d see me post charts, but please, it does not mean that it is an indication to BUY. I share for entertainment, discussion and for FUN.



Besides basuras, GAMING is indeed that sector that shined the most.

If you’re a trend follower you have all the reason to have exposure in these names. These 3 are the leaders for me. You may add PLC as well, anyway it’ll probably move with these others.

BLOOMERZ

LR

MCP

Notice how all of them are hovering within their 1-2 year highs? Enough said. 

Besides gaming I’d take a second look on retail names $PGOLD, $COSCO, $RRHI, and the upcoming $SSI. Some battered charts kindly look attractive already.

Global markets are at the highs, because of the surprise on Japan’s monetary easing shiznit. My strategy for the coming months is still the same.

GAMING + nibble on some retailers + positioning on undiscovered BASURAs

Also, I’m shifting back on trading FOREX + Global Indices since I see very interesting moves / set ups happening in the global markets. I don’t limit myself to equities, if there are strong trends developing abroad, whether on currencies or indices–i try my best to capitalize on them.


Lastly,

Just a friendly reminder..

Please take responsibility for your own trades, know why you entered a trade.

Do you have a strategy?
What is your strategy?
When do you BUY when do you SELL?

What are your entry & exit levels?
What are your stops?
When will you know that the tide has changed from positive to negative?
When will you know that it is game over?

If you fail to answer these questions and you are playing with BASURA names, then chances are the market will sooner or later eat you up.

It’s so easy to be freaking lucky, trading on tips, rumors, and on the ticker, but if you have no discipline, and no reliable system, it will all get back to you. LUCK WILL only bring you so far. So please, don’t be a dummy… HELP YOURSELF.


This blog aint a reco to buy or sell shit. This blog is mainly my journal meant for sharing, and entertainment purposes. Don’t take everything too seriously. Wag nyo po ako susumbong sa PDEA.

Charts are provided by: http://investagrams.com/ 

Feel free to subscribe if you want to follow what’ll happen to the SHABU PORTFOLIO. 

Sa mga chicks or for those who have queries, questions, suggestions, trashtalks, you may hit me up on my facebook account

Shabu Analysis: $IRC, $MER, $PCOR, $MARC, $LR

Global markets on a bounce. Finally. Anyway, most mainstream index names are boring.

Here are some charts I’m looking at.


$IRC

Trigger at around 1.45-1.50, Momentum at 1.60-1.70, then Shabu at 2.00+

IRC


$MER

Laggard, but seems to be holding up. Unappreciated dog with its conglo $MPI.

250-260 now, onward to 290-300? Hula lang


mer shabu


$PCOR

Kapag nag placement pa ulit yung companya ewan ko nalang pota sila. haha. Anyway the retirement shares still have about 700m shs, if I’m not mistaken.

11.50 base, lookin to break 12.00. Shabu 13.00-13.50

pcor


$MARC

Umpog o palag? Bahala na.

Break 7.50 then re-visit 7.80-8.00

Anyway these nickel plays seem to be a good accu for next year.

Ride the trend


marc lol



$LR

Re-visit 9.60 then palag 10-10.20.

No targets on this one, I’m in it for the long/medium term

Anyway, this kind of stock I think you just hold, kaya yung mga atat, sige tapon nyo lang

LRlong

lrshort


I like to keep my shit simple, no need to make it fancy.

Note: this aint a reco to buy/sell shit, take these as references, and for entertainment. Act on your own judgement.

Feel free to subscribe if you want to hear more of my thoughts.

Charts are provided by: http://investagrams.com/ 

Sa mga chicks or for those who have queries, questions, suggestions, trashtalks, you may hit me up on my facebook account

The Most Important Lesson That I’ve learned in the Market

Let me share to you one of the most important conversations in “Reminiscences of a Stock Operator”, which depicts the difference between the pros and the amateurs

Reminiscences_of_a_Stock_Operator


Elmer: “Mr. Partridge, I have just sold my Climax Motors. My people say the market is entitled to a reaction and that I’ll be able to buy it back cheaper. So you’d better do likewise. That is, if you’ve still got yours.”

Turkey: “Yes, Mr. Harwood, I still have it. Of course!”

Elmer: “Well, now is the time to take your profit and get in again on the next dip,” said Elmer, “I have just sold every share I owned!”

Turkey: “No! No! I can’t do that!”

Elmer: “Didn’t I give you the tip to buy it?”

Turkey: “You did, Mr. Harwood, and I am very grateful to you.

Elmer: And didn’t that stock go up seven points in ten days? Didn’t it?”

Turkey: “It did, and I am much obliged to you, my dear boy. But I couldn’t think of selling that stock.”

Elmer: “Why not?”

Turkey: “Why, this is a bull market!”
(The old fellow said it as though he had given a detailed explanation.)

Elmer: “I know this is a bull market as well as you do. But you’d better slip them that stock of yours and buy it back on the reaction. You might as well reduce the cost to yourself.”

Turkey: “My dear boy, if I sold that stock now I’d lose my position; and then where would I be? And when you are as old as I am and you’ve been through as many booms and panics as I have, you’ll know that to lose your position is something nobody can afford; not even John D. Rockefeller. I hope the stock reacts and that you will be able to repurchase your line at a substantial concession, sir. But I myself can only trade in accordance with the experience of many years. I paid a high price for it and I don’t feel like throwing away a second tuition fee. But I am as much obliged to you as if I had the money in the bank. It’s a bull market, you know.”


Here’s an example: $PIP one of the solid growth stocks during 2012. from 2.00 went as high as 6.88. I remember back then most of the technical / fundamental analysts only saw this going at 4.00-4.50, after that they thought it was expensive or too high already.

Do you seriously think that after consolidating for 4-years, a stock will just go for a mere 20% move?Do you seriously think that after consolidating for 4-years, a stock will just go for a mere 20%-30% move?


Most traders are so eager to make a quick buck. People label themselves as a “TRADER” thinking they have to trade all the time to make money. In reality, they OVER-TRADE just to feel the fulfillment, the excitement, the rush. They try to watch the market everyday looking for ways to make quick money.  They seek to predict each tick and capture each spike, thus they react to every short term market gyration. They go in and out of their positions with very high frequency. They think they’re so smart for making a quick 5% punt…… only to see the stock they sold move further by another 30% sometimes even 50% to 100%. Then they start wishing for a retracement so that they can buyback.

Oh… the great old buy back THAT NEVER CAME. They only realize their mistake once the stock has made it’s big move– like a 50% to 100% trend up. People fail to realize that the biggest trades doesn’t require much effort nor force. It’s just a matter of being right, and sitting tight. (which is easy to say, but very hard to do.), Traders don’t have to fucking trade all-day. Problem is most of us do not aim for the BIG $$$Money. Many of us subliminally stay in the markets just to fill our psychological need for EXCITEMENT.

Remember, BIG moves take TIME to develop. It is quite ironic, but for me, one of the most important aspects of being successful in the market is to have the discipline and patience to stay away from the screens when the market is already going according to your flow. This means shrugging off all the impulse and the excitement that you get from seeing the current premature profit your position is showing. 


Most amateurs feel excited during trading, because they are acting on impulse. Pros rarely feel excitement, because they are acting on their SYSTEM. There is no emotional attachment to a single particular trade, each trade is just a statistic. Pros are not here for the thrill, they are here to MAKE MONEY–BIG MONEY. 


Feel free to subscribe if you want to hear more of my thoughts.

Charts are provided by: http://investagrams.com/ 

Sa mga chicks or for those who have queries, questions, suggestions, trashtalks, you may hit me up on my facebook account

September: Playing a Different Ball Game

September: Playing a Different Ball Game


 

Entering September, I thought it was time to go back to blue chips. Thus my portfolio looked like this:

sept 08, 2014


 

My signals were showing strength with the index breaking 7200-7300…. Various blue chips was looking solid… so you see names like RRHI, SMPH, AGI on my port.

but then, this shit happened.

pseiwarning

holdings fade pmini fade property fade



Financials
were an exception though, this might give the index a ray of hope.

financials ex


 

I took this as a warning sign. I think that most index names will be stagnant for awhile, so I decided to I trim my whole portfolio and left my defensive picks $MWIDE + $MPI.

Since most of the sectors looked weak and dull, I have decided to be overweight BASURA and GAMING.

Why not financials? I opted not to just because I think the reward is small.


Here’s a view of the Shabu Portfolio

port sept 12

See it’s not all profits right? This is a different ball game. But at the end of the day, it’s all about being overweight strong names at the right time.

(I blocked off all basura names that are under accumulation both for the benefit of the reader and the poster.)


Why Basura

1) KASI SIRAULO YUNG MARKET.

2) wala lang. trip ko lang.


 

This is the main trigger of the BASURA FRENZY

ISbasuralord

 

So I figured, the market will probably look for more plays like this.


Examples, of my recent basura chamba moves

$ORE

ore

orebuy

oreport

Just to show that you that I practice what I preach. Well ito medyo obvious kasi susunod lang sa $MARC. Sold everything at 3.00 downwards.


 

$MG

MGchart

mgshabu

mgsell


Trade of the millennium ko sana, kaso tinira nila agad. Profit is profit. Sold most at .58 after seeing it fail to hold the .60 level.


As usual if the index goes stale, speculators and the usual pundits will resort back to the old “tira dito, tira doon” style. It’s a matter of knowing which of these penny stocks have the potential.

Tip lang sa NEWBIES. Wag masyado greedy sa basura. It’s a different ball game. Walang AWA mga kalaro mo dito.

There will be times where you’ll feel like a genius riding high fliers, getting ceiling plays and all, but you have to determine how to do this CONSISTENTLY.


Ask yourself, did you just get lucky? or can you identify high fliers in a consistent manner?

Tighter risk controls, specially if you don’t know what you’re doing.

Di araw-araw pasko. Always define how much risk you can take when taking these kinds of trades. When I have a basura that is not working based on my expectations I don’t hesitate to throw it away, even if it’s a 10% loss, after all it is GARBAGE, right?


Moving on. So why Gaming?

When the general market looks weak, those who remain strong MUST BE REALLY STRONG.


$LR

This was one of the strongest names according to my system going into September. It detected MCP + BEL as well, which I have exposure as well in my other accounts. But I chose to be overweight $LR because it gave the strongest signals. Since I liked LR, I also accumulated $LRW for a more speculative play.

LRzoom

Earlier, I posted about $LR  in my Shabu Analysis 2 (Check it out here), highlighting 8.40-8.50 as a critical range. It was sold down temporarily at 7.90-8.00, but then it rebounded quickly, and blasted its way past that resistance closing at 8.80 with huge demand on bid.

This kind of set-up is the forte of my system. Specially when most of the market is weak, that’s where you’ll see the outliers.


Anyway, that’s about it. I will stick to gaming and basuras for the mean time. I’ll only revert back to beta sectors once I see clear signals. 


You might see me post charts from time to time but that is NOT an indication to BUY, remember that. 

With all the information available in the internet, please do yourself a favor and always put in your own diligence before making a trading decision.

That’s all. May we all have a profitable month ahead!


 

This blog aint a reco to buy or sell shit. This blog is mainly my journal meant for sharing, and entertainment purposes. Don’t take everything too seriously. Wag nyo po ako susumbong sa PDEA.

Charts are provided by: http://investagrams.com/ 

Feel free to subscribe if you want to follow what’ll happen to the SHABU PORTFOLIO. 

Sa mga chicks or for those who have queries, questions, suggestions, trashtalks, you may hit me up on my facebook account


Maneuvering the Shabu Portfolio to All-Time HIGHs

THE SHABU PORTFOLIO
————————————

Sup! After being busy for the past few months, I’m now back in action. Before we start, let me just tell you bout some changes:

First. I am now focused full time into trading for myself and fund-management for clients. I can now move more actively and aggressively in the market if I choose to do so. Before, I could not play quick trades because I was so caught up with my job and other responsibilities.

Second. I won’t be showing portfolio values anymore, since capital has increased vs the amounts handled in my previous blog posts. And laganap ang mga kidnapper. lol

Third. After spending several years in the SHABU LAB, I am now a more systematized trader.

———————————————————————————————————————-

Let’s Begin. 

Global equities are hovering around all-time high levels. If you read in my earlier posts, I was mostly bearish entering the year, but I didn’t let my opinions interfere with what the market was showing. Factoring in all the QE/money printing bull shit all around the world, one can get scared with all the excess. However, the craze is still on and markets all over the world are showing they ain’t scared.

You can say people are probably getting complacent, but as a trader we just follow the money and listen to what the market is saying.

Opinions won’t make you money, trading on the right side will.

This quote is very relevant nowadays since we have lots of people in social media sharing views, analysis, hypes, bull shits and what not. If you see a super comprehensive, logical, fundamentally sound analysis / opinion from a veteran, think twice before betting your balls.
LEARN TO BE INDEPENDENT, always take responsibility for your trades.

At the end of the day the market dictates which views are relevant and which ones are trash.

———————————————————————————————————————-

Even if I had a bearish view I was almost always 100% in terms of portfolio exposure, it did not matter to me since I was focusing on low-beta plays. I wasn’t able to ride market leaders DNL and NIKL, but I found other ways to make money. Since I thought that the index sucked, I focused on mining–which built up 50% of my portfolio before I started trimming on rallies.

Here’s a glimpse of my port on Aug. 13, 2014 (I have trimmed already at this point)

Censored Aug 13 Port

———————————————————————————————————————-

Why the f*ck Mining?

Mining was clearly one of the leading sectors this year.

mining index miningzoom
———————————————————————————————————————-
Why AT, MARC and PX? 

———————————————————————————————————————-

$MARC

Since I wasn’t able to hold NIKL, I focused on its brothers. Many people were selling because of the suspension. Good thing my signals were telling me otherwise. I was overweight this with about 1/3 of my port. Again let me emphasize: Opinions won’t make you money.

I sold most of it at 6.80-7.20, before it crashed back to 6.00, I wasn’t able to buy back, so I bought $ORE instead LOL

MARC break

———————————————————————————————————————-

$AT

Sold 16.80-17.00


AT5yearATzoom

———————————————————————————————————————-
$PX

Been accumulating this since 9+, then added on breakouts of 10-11. if you look at my port my avg price would be high already since I tripled my size at 11+, because it looked like a high probability 12. It did go there, and I threw most at 12.50 on the way down.

pxbreak

———————————————————————————————————————-

As for MWC

Since I was mainly bearish, I didn’t want high-beta names. I stuck with this for 5 months. Sold at 29.50 downwards. Good thing it’s now back to 28!!! wooo! I almost thought it would breakout of 30.

MWCtargets

———————————————————————————————————————-

These were the main plays of the Shabu Portfolio that made me money in the month of August.

Again, I was trading the whole year with a bearish view, but because my signals were telling me otherwise… I looked for ways where I could get exposure to strong names that had stories of their own or had low correlation to the common shit that fundies hold.

———————————————————————————————————————-

August was a generous month. I am quite thankful that the SHABU PORTFOLIO is at ytd highs, and is currently doing more than double my benchmark’s performance. I have also beaten my 2012 ytd, considering that I’m trading a bigger size now–not bad.

September may be more challenging.. yet more interesting. I saw something that made me decide to implement a different approach moving towards the “ber” months.

You can check it out on my next post. (Link to be inserted here)

———————————————————————————————————————-

This blog aint a reco to buy or sell shit. This blog is mainly my journal meant for sharing, and entertainment purposes. Don’t take everything too seriously. Wag nyo po ako susumbong sa PDEA.

Charts are provided by: http://investagrams.com/ 

Feel free to subscribe if you want to follow what’ll happen to the SHABU PORTFOLIO. 

Sa mga chicks or for those who have queries, questions, suggestions, trashtalks, you may hit me up on my facebook account

Shabu Analysis

From time to time, I’ll be posting my view on stocks that I find interesting. Please note that these stocks have already been filtered in my “Shabu Screening Program”. I have back tested my program since 1969 and I can say that I have a 69% hit rate. I don’t care if I miss, I just throw it out and cut immediately and move on to the next play.

I won’t post any buy signals, or any technical indicators, rather I’ll just highlight certain Shabu Levels–ranges that help me determine my buying/selling decisions. Kanya kanyang diskarte na yan.  It’s up to you how you look at the chart.

—-

Here’s this weeks highlights:

LR

Gaming leaders SINO + BLOOM have emerged already. I think this baby is next in line. I think gaming will be a strong theme moving towards the latter months of the year. Watch MCP + BEL too.

3-year down trend broken, likely to break 8.40-8.50, then move forward to 9-10.

LR sept 08
—–

PAL

RSA sold it for twice the amount he paid for during 2012. (bought 49% at $500m, sold at $1B). Coincidentally, it has been on a slump since RSA bought in. What will happen now that he’s out of the picture. Let’s see how the market reacts.

CEB holding its solid trend, I think it’s time for Airlines to shine. OIL prices continue to weaken. Many factors why airlines are now gaining interest.

2 year + down trend broken, hovering at 6.00, bound to tackle 6.50, then 7.00 then HEAVEN

PAL sept 08

—-

ORE

Kinda lagging among the nickel miners NIKL + MARC + CMT, but for those who want catch up in the Nickel Crazeyou can check this out.

Broke its 2.40 resistance. You saw how it flew to 2.90 awhile ago. Seems like this still has potential, all depending on how the big boys handle the ride. A convincing breakout of the 3.00 level will definitely make things more interesting.

ore sept08—-

That’s all for this week, if you want to receive FREE stock updates just add me in Facebook (click the link or just search Imbang Klase), you can also subscribe on my blog to receive email updates.

$DAVIN: Following the leader….

DavinAug 19

Seems like PGOLD and COSCO have found their short term bottoms lead by none other than the boss. Lucio Co.

As tweeted by Warren de Guzman and disclosed by PSE:

luciobottom
Let’s see if that was the bottom of DAVIN based on my read the 2.15-2.20 area is a strong support already. A break of around the 2.50 level will probably spark momentum in the stock. Take a look, trend line is still intact 🙂 If this holds possible 2.80-3.00, just my 69 cents.