Author Archives: imbangklase

About imbangklase

I'm a business-minded person still stuck in school. I used to be a hardcore athlete, but certain incidents made me shift my path. There are many challenges that I have yet to conquer. To succeed, I know that I have to get through my biggest enemy.... ME. :) Garnering some knowledge and experience in my training stint with one of the international brokerages in the Philippines, I now start my venture in the stock market--trying to be a successful "Swing Trader".

Sir Penge Po Stock Tip

May mga nag-tatanong sakin.. “sir penge po tip”, “pa timbre naman ho kapag bibili kayo”, “ano po next play” “pabulong naman po koya”.

uhhh… no offense, pero I do not advocate spoon feeding. This blog/page serves as my journal, mainly for my leisure and entertainment. Kahit teammates ko, tulungan kami pero kanya kanya kaming diskarte, kahit nag-bebentahan kami wala kaming iyakan o sama ng loob. Bakit ganun? Because no one knows shit in the market, you have to be responsible for your trades.

I post charts from time-to-time, to track some names I’m looking at. May mga orange na kahon, may mga price point, pero walang TP, walang indicator, walang analysis na ga-haba dahil wala naman akong cinoconvince bumili, kung mali simple lang, eh di cut loss. The charts I post are mainly for my reference, or trip ko lang i-share kasi interesting.

Di rin ho ako guru o ano man, simpleng trader lang na ang focus eh maging consistent hanggang sa ako’y maging lolo.


I checked the performance of this page/blog since I started posting again this 2016.
Imba performance

Peds na, para sa trip-trip lang at libreng pag-share. Does that mean dapat nyoko sundan? Nah. Maaring kumita ka, pero maaring ikamatay mo rin. Point is, you have to know what you’re gonna do based on your strategy.

I am willing to help those who deserved to be helped, pero I never advocate spoon feeding. You can ask me for advice and general questions pero hanggang dun lang. At the end of the day you will have to put in the work.

Kung bigyan kita ng isda, isang araw mo lang kakainin yun, pero kung ma-tuto ka mangisda habang buhay ka mabubusog.
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Farewell 2015: The Best Lessons are Learned in the Most Difficult Moments

Reflections for 2015

In my whole trading experience, I’d say 2015 was the most difficult. Though there were many high fliers throughout the year, (mostly speculative names) most of the big caps, index names, and fundamental names just sucked. In this year, we saw how previously deemed “alpha names” just died down in liquidity and sold off fast at extremely low levels, this is a big pre-cursor for what’s about to come to us. If you’ve been following this blog, my stance since Oct-Nov has been firm– 2016 onwards the market will continue to be punishing. And now we’re here… breaking down of that 6600 level.

Performance

Performance wise, 2015 is my 2nd best year. 2014 was my best year %, but I consider 2015, more valuable and memorable, because the lessons it taught me are really pricelessBack then, I thought I was just lucky finding high fliers, and outliers. Initially, my first notion was if you’d be making consistent 30-50% year on year that would be great already (and yes it is). But then upon further reflection, I saw that I could challenge myself further. I set myself to at least double my money every year.
Difficult task, but I dedicated myself to it, either way even if I missed 100%, I knew I’d be near that all the time, if I really put my heart to it. Even with this difficult year, I’m glad I managed to prove to myself that hey it’s fucking possible to be consistent on a high goal as long as you prep yourself to perform in a high level as well.

The Most Important Aspects

This is where I realized how valuable Patience and Discipline is. No matter the knowledge in indicators and systems, a person’s experience and psychology plays a big part in executing in dire times like this. Bulk of the year, I was just sitting in cash. I only played in high probability moments and plays. I was trading ruthlessly, I knew how shitty the market was soon gonna become so I tried to be as accurate, and as nimble as I could.

Most of the time, when my system was giving me warning signs, I had zero-exposure in the market. This lead me to outperform, avoid down-swings, and ride outliers. I also set in my mind that I’m in no rush of making money. I only take what the market gives me. Though I have a high goal, I am not pressured with the amounts and the targets, my only real focus is on the process, with perpetual questions like these embedded on my head:

  • Am I following my system?
  • Are the probabilities on my side?
  • Is the trade worth taking?
  • How is the overall market health?
  • How can I exit this play?
  • Am I forcing myself or am I just going with the flow of the market?

Challenges and Lessons

2015 has also been the first year where I started to encounter liquidity problems. Since I had an increase in my managed funds (clients), the size thing was a big challenge in an environment like this. And it is a very great lesson for me, there were many instances where I did not follow my cut loss plans because I was hesitating due to the liquidity, little did I know how fast some plays fell down ‘due to lack of liquidity’.

This is an imminent trait in most bear markets, weak small caps are the first one to perish. I realized that in the future there should be no exceptions, I took some unnecessary hits this year just because I wasn’t disciplined enough to take the pain early on. But it’s all good, I still managed to survive, and those lessons will be remembered forever.

Hello 2016

2016 will be a killer year. A killer of those who were invested at the high levels with no cut losses. I expect chaos, but it’s all cool when you’re all in cash. As usual there will be profitable bounces in these critical moments, but we should always remember that the game and environment has changed.. 2015 was probably just an appetizer.

 

 

 

Drifting Away from 2015 (a re-cap of my trading year)

2015 reminds me of 2013.

Strong start, and possibly weak finish. These kind of moves tell you that there are deep implications that may kill the market further in the future. Market held 6600, and is trying to bounce 7200-7300 but then what next? Not unless we take out 7550 and eat 7800 with conviction, that’s the only time this market will be interesting again.

If you plot every potential catalyst, probabilities are heavily skewed to the negative. So don’t be to eager.

pcomp start


Take a look at the performances of some of these equity funds. Most of them are bleeding already.. wait till you see more panic abroad till the contagion hits all of em and redemption goes rampant.

mutual fund performance

I’m not saying this will happen immediately. But I really believe more pain will come in the following months.. I also think 2016 will be a very difficult year for the average investor. Best thing is to focus on other profitable avenues such as starting your business.


How I attacked this kind of market

at the start of the year my port looked somewhat like this

I positioned in MAXS + SSI since they still looked good back then + they had interesting stories.

port start


At one point I even tried to fool myself and become a fundamental investor

long term port


Why I don’t give a f*ck about noise

I base all of my trading decisions mainly on my technical screen. I look at fundamentals, hear out rumors, listen to tips but I don’t really care about any of those if they don’t pass my technical criteria.


Here’s an example…

tapet dead

I’ve been hearing, seeing tons of information about this stock.. and what’s funny is if you were the typical investor you’d already be hyped by all the fuzz.. but look at the last 10 candles before it gapped down.. it was never able to go above the 50 day Moving average or even the 20 day (these are just basic indications of weakness).

Condolences.


My philosophy is simple:

Whatever information–whether fundamentals, rumors, tips, insider–you have will only be valuable if the market acts on that proposition.

In other words, even if you have all the connections, and even if you have the tips of the number 1 analyst in the world. It will all be useless if the only one acting on that information is YOU. If there really is magic in a stock, there should be an impact in the demand & supply showing you signs (no matter how subtle) that there is “something” going on in that stock.


Reminiscing

when the broad market started to weaken, I decide to go back to becoming ruthless. What’s interesting in the weak phases of the market is that’s where you really see whether you have what it takes to make money in the most challenging periods.

pcomp weak

1st circle: failure to re-take 8000

2nd circle: Confirmation, support turned resistance– failure to re-take 7800, by this point most blue chips already sucked.


I’ve designed my strategy to identify potential plays as early as possible. That’s when I buy, not when you see noise all around as if you’re being given a free gold mine. (the more obvious something is, the less opportunity.)

Here are some of the plays I fortunately found this year:

Pardon the screenies, but this is what I found in my files

Tapet , PXP

these were the early days..

tapetpor1

I wonder why there was no noise back when this was doing 4.00 lol..


FNI

fni hehe

This was the first bottom around 1.17.. Some of the best technical set ups appear when everyone in FB / forums are crying. That’s exactly what happened in this trade.

There seems to be an inverse relationship between “Noise or Fish Enthusiasm” vs “Stock Market Returns

fni sell

this FNI bounce play will be memorable for me because I was on the beach with a special someone while taking this trade. Imagine that, making money while enjoying life.

awesome

Awesome Memory.


Most of my other plays I usually post in my blogs, or in my FB.

DD

too bad wasn’t able to hold this all the way tho. hehe

goodluck dddd conso


FED

FED marc

fedearly


YEHEY

yeheyport1

I mean it when I say I like to find things early.

yehey


If the play is strong, my only focus is on that play till I milk it to the end.

yeheyport

yehey1


I keep focus fire on that stock and stick with it, until I see no more upside. This is where I become a punter. I swing the stock for as many times as I can as long as I feel that it still has fire in it.

yeheyport2

yeheyupdate


2GO

This is my favorite stock. Been here since the early days. I remember a good old friend of mine called this stock “puGO” back when it was doing 2.00 bucks. hehe. 🙂

2go

2goearly


2go woops

2go early1


2gosolid1

2goport

Sold then bought back

2go last


These are just some of my trades. I have lots of quick trades, minor bounces, day trades etc.. but I don’t usually put much focus on set ups that only give me 5-10% upside. I realize that I’m more of a win big type of player than a rinse and repeat quantity trader. I prefer to sit patiently and wait for potential big moves. I like trading plays that give me 20% or more.


Like any other trader I commit lots of small errors, I proudly incur many 3-5% or even 8-10% losses. Doesn’t matter.

Here are some of my losses this year. 🙂

loss hehe

loss 2

I appreciate losses because they enable me to step back and learn further–refine myself. I never hesitate admiting mistakes. I never bitch about it, once you get scared of losing money that’s the end of your career in trading.

kanorology3

It’s all part of the probability game. When I get it right though, I make sure that my bullets are really concentrated on that play.


The way I outperform:

Be humble when mistaken, and be overly aggressive when proven correct.


How I’ll attack the next months / 2016

At this point, even if I don’t trade anymore I’m already good for the year. I am merely waiting for really good opportunities to get some bonus. I’m happy that I was able to hit my goals back in my post “Why You Should Never Compare Yourself to a Mutual Fund”

first breakdown

I think the Sept-Oct will be deadly. I’d be on the sides waiting for extreme reactions that I can take advantage off. My strategy is to play tighter in the next few months, ONLY going in when the probabilities are really really high. Like what I’ve been doing for the whole year.. the game is all about finding outliers. If the market fails to take out 7600-7800 then it’s good as shit for me.

This is also a good opportunity for me to start shifting my efforts and capital towards other endeavors, am working on several start-ups as of the moment. The market has been a good stepping stone.. now it’s time to pay back and create real value in this world. 🙂


startup

It won’t be easy… but it will be WORTH IT.

Reflection Sundays: The Core Trait of Winning Traders

test

I rarely see arrogant & egoistic people become successful in the markets.. What’s unique about trading is that it requires a certain balance of ‘self-confidence’, being really fucking ‘aggressive’ when the opportunity shows itself while keeping ‘great humility’ intact on times that the market tells you you’re wrong.


I’ve seen lots of traders come and go… specially those who are early birds in the bull run, most of em make money in the easy times.. then their egos BALOON so high that at some point they get slaughtered by a one big hit, or a series of losses–they cannot admit that they are mistaken, then they quit.


Because of the damage on their psyche, they fail to manage the challenges, and transcend.


This is specially true for people full of themselves.. No matter how smart you are or how experienced you are, those who feel like they are so ENTITLED that they cannot take a step back and admit to themselves that “hey maybe the market is telling me I’m wrong, and I need to change something in my ways” are eaten ALIVE by the market.

On the other hand, in my years of trading I’ve always followed and observed the best traders. whether they are veterans or still rising.. I see one prevalent characteristic.. that is “Selflessness”, there are many other traits you can name it all, determination, thirst for knowledge, flexibility, guts, reflexive decision makingbalance, resillience etc.. we can fill this whole page, but for me, all of these traits are useless without the core trait of “Selflessness”


george

it’s kinda ironic if you think of it..

Why selflessness? my definition of selflessness in trading is–mastering the ability to go with the flow of the market and totally separate your emotions, ego, psyche, and personal worth with how you attack the market.. Yes, individuals have different skill sets.. it doesn’t matter whether they are genius analysts or have superb trading systems–I believe the core trait that keeps them going is their “Selfless” approach towards the market.


The best traders are ONE with the markets.. they listen and act whenever they are wronged which leads them to perpetual refinement… which in the end leads to Mastery.


The market is like a reality mechanism that keeps on punching you back… and those who cannot take these doses of reality easily give up, perish or remain STAGNANT.. on the other hand the most successful traders are able to separate all their BS, drama, emotions, and other personal shits.. because they understand that “the market will do what it wants to do” if you want to make MONEY all you have to do is recognize where it wants to go…….NOT “where you think it should go.”


I have the greatest respect for the people who, no matter how good they’ve become, keep a humble approach in the market.. they remain good examples not to let your ego eat yourself and hinder you from attaining the great opportunities of life. I love talking with these individuals because they are all about self-improvement and learning about the markets.. no matter how good they’ve become they stay grounded and remain humble. Kudos to my idols.. let’s keep it up and see you at the top.

Shabu Analysis™: $2GO, $CAL, $CNPF, $DMPL, $SSI

Shabu Analysis™

Here are some stocks that I have sniffed–sensing some trails of SHABU potential within them.

You may be wondering where the hell I get these stock picks. Sometimes I use my favorite dart set to hit on my wall filled with stock codes. Sometimes I use my proprietary SHABU system to identify plays, I just don’t post my methodology in public because my momma will get mad

All that you will see in SHABU ANALYSIS are merely Price + Volume, some lines, and some ranges in the form of rectangular boxes, because most of the time I’m too high and drunk to look at complicated indicators.


$2GO

2gosolid1

I like how it’s moving. Interesting to see where it can go. Macro environment is fit for this play.


$CAL

cal

Approaching 4.00.. observe how it behaves here.


$CNPF

cnpf

Trigger at the 19.00 level. Let’s see if 18.00-18.50 is significant, otherwise I’d take a second look when it goes near to 17.00


$DMPL

dmpl1

Illiquid name but somehow my gut tells me that there’s something in this stock.. almost no one is looking at this which is why I find it interesting (in the medium term)

The trigger here is the 13.50-14.00 range. Observe if support levels hold.


$SSI

ssi

I like how this one is forming… Watch it in the weeks to come. Opportunity may be near.


I like to keep my shit simple, no need to make it fancy.

Note: this aint a reco to BUY/SELL, take these as references, and for entertainment.

Act on your own JUDGEMENT
Your money is your RESPONSIBILITY
Always have a TRADING PLAN

Feel free to subscribe if you want to hear more of my thoughts.

Charts are provided by: Investagrams.com

For those who have queries, questions, suggestions, trashtalks, you may hit me up on my FB PAGE

Shabu Analysis™: $2GO, $AR, $DD

Shabu Analysis™

Here are some stocks that I have sniffed–sensing some trails of SHABU potential within them.

You may be wondering where the hell I get these stock picks. Sometimes I use my favorite dart set to hit on my wall filled with stock codes. Sometimes I use my proprietary SHABU system to identify plays, I just don’t post my methodology in public because my momma will get mad

All that you will see in SHABU ANALYSIS are merely Price + Volume, some lines, and some ranges in the form of rectangular boxes, because most of the time I’m too high and drunk to look at complicated indicators.


Been a while since I’ve last posted, seems like index is recovering, but the reward on most index names are just steady. Gaming names on the other hand have made a profitable bottom already.

My eyes are fixed on these stocks–all of which I think will make interesting moves in the days to come.


$2GO

2go chart

After 4-months of sleep this stock seems to be back taking out initial levels 7.00-7.50. Next in line for this is 9.00–take that out and we may see a re-test of the 10.30 highs.. 

Let’s see how far this goes, remember this company is one of the main beneficiaries of a low-oil price environment. What I like about this stock is that there’s little supply… this may go far if demand is sustained.


$AR

ar update

I think there’s gonna be interesting action in this one in the days to come. It should hold above  .007, then let’s see how it trades between .0075 and .0080, if there’s really some fire in this, it will be able to take out .008 and aim higher. 

Of course, know what and who you’re playing with.  If the players want this higher they can really do that.. My systems is showing me that it can take out .008, 

let’s see.


$DD

dd

Very strong move, breaking out of the 10.50-11.00 range… all I can say is congrats to those who have this, in the short term it may visit near 15.00, in situations like these the early buyers are now just probably sipping beer and relaxing watching wherever this stock can go. That’s what’s good about going with the “Path of Least Resistance”


I like to keep my shit simple, no need to make it fancy.

Note: this aint a reco to BUY/SELL, take these as references, and for entertainment.

Act on your own JUDGEMENT
Your money is your RESPONSIBILITY
Always have a TRADING PLAN

Feel free to subscribe if you want to hear more of my thoughts.

Charts are provided by: Investagrams.com

For those who have queries, questions, suggestions, trashtalks, you may hit me up on my FB PAGE

Shabu Analysis: Warning signs

Market generally weak. Leaders slowly withering. Be careful. Your typical buy on dip text book mentality will have to be adjusted as I think we’re gonna experience more significant dips.

I’m gonna take a vacation first and drink beer on the beach, while waiting for clearer signs and better opportunities.


$AGI

agi bear

20.50-21, with a sell on rally opportunity at 24-25


$URC

urc dead

One of the titans of our market, you’d be thinking that these stocks are invisible, but you may want to reconsider that mentality. break below 200 you’d see it around 185


$JFC

JFC dead

Just like URC, this is one of the favorite stocks of “long term peeps”.. Unfortunately this previously unstoppable name is also showing weakness. Almost same structure as URC, break below 200, and watch it near 180.


$BLOOM

bloom dead

If this doesn’t hold 10.00+ successfully and break 10.80-11 then it seems like it’ll range down 8.00-9.00 


$AC

ac dead

Pardon the lines lol it’s just for illustration, this is one of the view remaining top dogs of the market, simply because it has always remain superior vs peers and ALI remains strong… but even this name is showing warning signs on my system.

if it closes below 800, watch 750.


$MEG

meg dead

The structure sucks, signals sucks. break below 5.00 and you’ll see this near 4.6-4.7.. but then structure just sucks.. seems like any rallies from initial supports will be chances to sell till it stabilizes near the 4.00-4.20 mark.


$PGOLD

pgold dead

This just looks ugly.. Failure to re-take 40 and 41, then this means it’s dead for the mean time. I expect it near 35-36.


$PSEI

psei dead

Structure reflects most of the leaders.. slowly weakening failing to take out critical levels.. initially 7650. If it still sucks watch near 7400.


That’s all, chill2 muna.. Broad market will definitely be more challenging. The game is now on stock picking, mostly on the speculative side, if you really want to out perform in the coming months.


I like to keep my shit simple, no need to make it fancy.

Note: this aint a reco to BUY/SELL, take these as references, and for entertainment.

Act on your own JUDGEMENT
Your money is your RESPONSIBILITY
Always have a TRADING PLAN

Feel free to subscribe if you want to hear more of my thoughts.

Charts are provided by: Investagrams.com

For those who have queries, questions, suggestions, trashtalks, you may hit me up on my FB PAGE