2015 reminds me of 2013.

Strong start, and possibly weak finish. These kind of moves tell you that there are deep implications that may kill the market further in the future. Market held 6600, and is trying to bounce 7200-7300 but then what next? Not unless we take out 7550 and eat 7800 with conviction, that’s the only time this market will be interesting again.

If you plot every potential catalyst, probabilities are heavily skewed to the negative. So don’t be to eager.

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Take a look at the performances of some of these equity funds. Most of them are bleeding already.. wait till you see more panic abroad till the contagion hits all of em and redemption goes rampant.

I’m not saying this will happen immediately. But I really believe more pain will come in the following months.. I also think 2016 will be a very difficult year for the average investor. Best thing is to focus on other profitable avenues such as starting your business.

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How I attacked this kind of market

at the start of the year my port looked somewhat like this

I positioned in MAXS + SSI since they still looked good back then + they had interesting stories.

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At one point I even tried to fool myself and become a fundamental investor

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Why I don’t give a f*ck about noise

I base all of my trading decisions mainly on my technical screen. I look at fundamentals, hear out rumors, listen to tips but I don’t really care about any of those if they don’t pass my technical criteria.

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Here’s an example…

I’ve been hearing, seeing tons of information about this stock.. and what’s funny is if you were the typical investor you’d already be hyped by all the fuzz.. but look at the last 10 candles before it gapped down.. it was never able to go above the 50 day Moving average or even the 20 day (these are just basic indications of weakness).

Condolences.

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My philosophy is simple:

Whatever information–whether fundamentals, rumors, tips, insider–you have will only be valuable if the market acts on that proposition.

In other words, even if you have all the connections, and even if you have the tips of the number 1 analyst in the world. It will all be useless if the only one acting on that information is YOU. If there really is magic in a stock, there should be an impact in the demand & supply showing you signs (no matter how subtle) that there is “something” going on in that stock.

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Reminiscing

when the broad market started to weaken, I decide to go back to becoming ruthless. What’s interesting in the weak phases of the market is that’s where you really see whether you have what it takes to make money in the most challenging periods.

1st circle: failure to re-take 8000

2nd circle: Confirmation, support turned resistance– failure to re-take 7800, by this point most blue chips already sucked.

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I’ve designed my strategy to identify potential plays as early as possible. That’s when I buy, not when you see noise all around as if you’re being given a free gold mine. (the more obvious something is, the less opportunity.)

Here are some of the plays I fortunately found this year:

Pardon the screenies, but this is what I found in my files

Tapet , PXP

these were the early days..

I wonder why there was no noise back when this was doing 4.00 lol..

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FNI

This was the first bottom around 1.17.. Some of the best technical set ups appear when everyone in FB / forums are crying. That’s exactly what happened in this trade.

There seems to be an inverse relationship between “Noise or Fish Enthusiasm” vs “Stock Market Returns“

this FNI bounce play will be memorable for me because I was on the beach with a special someone while taking this trade. Imagine that, making money while enjoying life.

Awesome Memory.

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Most of my other plays I usually post in my blogs, or in my FB.

DD

too bad wasn’t able to hold this all the way tho. hehe

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FED

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YEHEY

I mean it when I say I like to find things early.

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If the play is strong, my only focus is on that play till I milk it to the end.

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I keep focus fire on that stock and stick with it, until I see no more upside. This is where I become a punter. I swing the stock for as many times as I can as long as I feel that it still has fire in it.

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2GO

This is my favorite stock. Been here since the early days. I remember a good old friend of mine called this stock “puGO” back when it was doing 2.00 bucks. hehe. 🙂

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Sold then bought back

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These are just some of my trades. I have lots of quick trades, minor bounces, day trades etc.. but I don’t usually put much focus on set ups that only give me 5-10% upside. I realize that I’m more of a win big type of player than a rinse and repeat quantity trader. I prefer to sit patiently and wait for potential big moves. I like trading plays that give me 20% or more.

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Like any other trader I commit lots of small errors, I proudly incur many 3-5% or even 8-10% losses. Doesn’t matter.

Here are some of my losses this year. 🙂

I appreciate losses because they enable me to step back and learn further–refine myself. I never hesitate admiting mistakes. I never bitch about it, once you get scared of losing money that’s the end of your career in trading.

It’s all part of the probability game. When I get it right though, I make sure that my bullets are really concentrated on that play.

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The way I outperform:

Be humble when mistaken, and be overly aggressive when proven correct.

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How I’ll attack the next months / 2016

At this point, even if I don’t trade anymore I’m already good for the year. I am merely waiting for really good opportunities to get some bonus. I’m happy that I was able to hit my goals back in my post “Why You Should Never Compare Yourself to a Mutual Fund”

I think the Sept-Oct will be deadly. I’d be on the sides waiting for extreme reactions that I can take advantage off. My strategy is to play tighter in the next few months, ONLY going in when the probabilities are really really high. Like what I’ve been doing for the whole year.. the game is all about finding outliers. If the market fails to take out 7600-7800 then it’s good as shit for me.

This is also a good opportunity for me to start shifting my efforts and capital towards other endeavors, am working on several start-ups as of the moment. The market has been a good stepping stone.. now it’s time to pay back and create real value in this world. 🙂

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It won’t be easy… but it will be WORTH IT.

I rarely see arrogant & egoistic people become successful in the markets.. What’s unique about trading is that it requires a certain balance of ‘self-confidence’, being really fucking ‘aggressive’ when the opportunity shows itself while keeping ‘great humility’ intact on times that the market tells you you’re wrong.

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I’ve seen lots of traders come and go… specially those who are early birds in the bull run, most of em make money in the easy times.. then their egos BALOON so high that at some point they get slaughtered by a one big hit, or a series of losses–they cannot admit that they are mistaken, then they quit.

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Because of the damage on their psyche, they fail to manage the challenges, and transcend.

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This is specially true for people full of themselves.. No matter how smart you are or how experienced you are, those who feel like they are so ENTITLED that they cannot take a step back and admit to themselves that “hey maybe the market is telling me I’m wrong, and I need to change something in my ways” are eaten ALIVE by the market.

On the other hand, in my years of trading I’ve always followed and observed the best traders. whether they are veterans or still rising.. I see one prevalent characteristic.. that is “Selflessness”, there are many other traits you can name it all, determination, thirst for knowledge, flexibility, guts, reflexive decision making, balance, resillience etc.. we can fill this whole page, but for me, all of these traits are useless without the core trait of “Selflessness”

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it’s kinda ironic if you think of it..

Why selflessness? my definition of selflessness in trading is–mastering the ability to go with the flow of the market and totally separate your emotions, ego, psyche, and personal worth with how you attack the market.. Yes, individuals have different skill sets.. it doesn’t matter whether they are genius analysts or have superb trading systems–I believe the core trait that keeps them going is their “Selfless” approach towards the market.

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The best traders are ONE with the markets.. they listen and act whenever they are wronged which leads them to perpetual refinement… which in the end leads to Mastery.

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The market is like a reality mechanism that keeps on punching you back… and those who cannot take these doses of reality easily give up, perish or remain STAGNANT.. on the other hand the most successful traders are able to separate all their BS, drama, emotions, and other personal shits.. because they understand that “the market will do what it wants to do” if you want to make MONEY all you have to do is recognize where it wants to go…….NOT “where you think it should go.”

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I have the greatest respect for the people who, no matter how good they’ve become, keep a humble approach in the market.. they remain good examples not to let your ego eat yourself and hinder you from attaining the great opportunities of life. I love talking with these individuals because they are all about self-improvement and learning about the markets.. no matter how good they’ve become they stay grounded and remain humble. Kudos to my idols.. let’s keep it up and see you at the top.

Shabu Analysis™

Here are some stocks that I have sniffed–sensing some trails of SHABU potential within them.

You may be wondering where the hell I get these stock picks. Sometimes I use my favorite dart set to hit on my wall filled with stock codes. Sometimes I use my proprietary SHABU system to identify plays, I just don’t post my methodology in public because my momma will get mad

All that you will see in SHABU ANALYSIS are merely Price + Volume, some lines, and some ranges in the form of rectangular boxes, because most of the time I’m too high and drunk to look at complicated indicators.

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$2GO

I like how it’s moving. Interesting to see where it can go. Macro environment is fit for this play.

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$CAL

Approaching 4.00.. observe how it behaves here.

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$CNPF

Trigger at the 19.00 level. Let’s see if 18.00-18.50 is significant, otherwise I’d take a second look when it goes near to 17.00

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$DMPL

Illiquid name but somehow my gut tells me that there’s something in this stock.. almost no one is looking at this which is why I find it interesting (in the medium term)

The trigger here is the 13.50-14.00 range. Observe if support levels hold.

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$SSI

I like how this one is forming… Watch it in the weeks to come. Opportunity may be near.

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I like to keep my shit simple, no need to make it fancy.

Note: this aint a reco to BUY/SELL, take these as references, and for entertainment.

Act on your own JUDGEMENT
Your money is your RESPONSIBILITY
Always have a TRADING PLAN

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