Monthly Archives: April 2014

Imbang Klase’s Shabu Holdings (April 25, 2014)

Sup?

Nice correction from the market eh?

While foreign funds remain net buyers, global indices seem to show signs of… shitting their pants.

As expected PSEi corrected upon reaching  the 6800 level. Also, there was little point to buy it at those levels as your reward would be very minuscule.

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On a bullish note these levels should serve as support:
S1: 6500
S2: 6300
(I’m no magician, I have no crystal ball. I don’t give specific index levels like 6666, 6567, 6769 or whatever. I don’t look at the precise number. I act upon RANGES. So when I say 6500 support, it could deviate (+/- ) 50 to 100 points from that specific level–all depending on your parameters, bias, view, etc.

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So how did the Shabu Holdings fare during the minor-sell off…?

Take a peek

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HOLD

MWC – My theory was correct. So now we see agressive buyers at 26-27… Do they already know the results of the arbitration shit? Or are they merely acting on value, or speculating just like me? =) Anyway, will just hold this and I’m in no rush.

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MPI – Will share the same fate as MWC, except that it’s pulled back by MER. Good thing here is that it has other stories within it other than being a water company. I’m confident that this stock still has steam for 2014.

OV -. Don’t care about the day-to-day flucs, if it goes back to .036-.037, or even better .035, I will add some more. Sit tight.

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SELLS

LPZ – Laggard, though it has potential, I needed to rotate funds as one of my top picks was bought up. Sold at small loss (-2%)

MBT – sold around 85-86. (+8%)

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BUYS

EMP –  I wanted to pick this up lower like 11.50. Unfortunately stock is well protected at around 11.50-11.80. Check the volume that went through there. Broke out of its initial resistance at 12.20-12.40, and is now trying to breakout of 12.60. Mostly, locals have been pushing the stock. I’m just waiting for my catalyst on this one. I’m not yet done accumulating this stock… Better if it corrects, if not, am still willing to buy on momentum. =)

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This stock made me realize how important it is to learn fundamentals as well. As you see, those who knew about EMP’s potential were already conviction buying at 9.00, while those who relied on charts alone were looking at a blur. 

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VUL – This is the Secret Shabu Holding on my last post Apr 13, 2014. Just a mere speculation, on the National Book Store backdoor in this stock. Anyway, seems to be getting attention since it’s now trading above 1.50. Let’s see if it breaks 1.60. 

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Secret Shabu Holding: I’m accumulating this shit because I’m bored, and because the market is bored and when people are bored they will find ways to entertain themselves.

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There you go!

As you can see my holdings are mostly low BETA names (low correlation with the index). I prefer to be selective in a market like this. I look for stocks that have good stories a.k.a. Catalysts. 

I trade on anticipation, not on confirmation. I like to visualize scenarios before they happen. Mostly, I’m a position trader. I rarely buy on breakouts, I usually position before they happen. 

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Note: This post is for entertainment purposes only and is part of my rehabilitation program. I hope to instigate discussion, sharing, learning among fellow traders. I do not mean to brag, nor to hype.  First of all, this portfolio is just a DILIS compared to the many WHALES of our market. Second, hyping… I don’t need that shit.

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If you want to get your regular dose of Shabu Updates feel free to subscribe to my blog, or add/like my page in Facebook. I’m open to questions, queries, trash talks. Farewell.

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Shabu Portfolio Update: April 13, 2014.

First of all congrats to Manny Pac! Solid magic from Aling Diyonisya…

Here’s a view of my portfolio. I’ll just go through my holdings.

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LPZ:
All its subs have recovered substantially. I’m just betting that this laggard should follow soon. Also, from how I see it, long-term charts seem to be on the bottom. So far, stock is still on a slump. Am just waiting.

MBT:
Another laggard vs BDO, BPI. I’m buying on the notion that 75-77 is already a steady support and it has room for upside vs those that have flew already.

MPI:
Under-appreciated, long-term charts signal that it has hit bottom. Broke out of initial test at 4.60 and 4.70. What’s interesting is that its within its next resistance 4.95-5.00, I’m confident with this one, just holding till 5.30-5.50+. let’s see.

MWC:
Same shit with MPI. I’m going contrarian by taking a view that the bad news on these water companies are already priced in. If i’m wrong, down side will be 5-10% to my cut loss points, but if I’m right, I’m looking at 28-30php initially. Actually, if I don’t need liquidity, I’d accumulate this for the long term. Same w/ MPI. Initial support at 24-23.50 then  22-21, given bad bad news and all that shiz

OV:
Turn around story + upside from any spike in OIL given geopolitical conflicts. Soon there will be renewable energies and all that, but as of now, I believe OIL is still critical, for the next 5-10 years perhaps. It has been hovering at $100-110/barrel for quite some time.. I wonder what happens when things w/ China, US, Russia erupts. Very very good risk-reward ratio in my opinion, especially at .035-.036,  these are the kinds of situations where you want to go LONG TERM. At the start of the base, when no one else is looking at the stock. I expect this at .040 soon. And that’s just the start of it. Momentum traders will follow-suit when things are more obvious.

Secret Shabu Holding: 
I’m still accumulating and it’s illiquid, but I’ll give you a clue. One word –> Libro

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These are my meek holdings. Just sharing for entertainment purposes, and to instigate discussion with fellow traders. I don’t hype. I don’t need hype. I put my money where my mouth is, but I’m also ready to eat my pride and cut loss whenever proven wrong. 

Imbang Klase’s Shabunalysis (Issue #1)

I’m back.

Really busy.

Won’t be talking much.

But will try to be productive and share to you some of my picks.

1. MBT

MBT chart1

Shabunalysis: You may be scared of the market, the noise and the shit, but focusing on charts alone I think PSEi in itself still has room to go up. Strong performance on banks. BDO is really strong, BPI now lookin good. Now check out the Laggard MBT. Strong performance of the banks will lead the market to 6800-7000. This can either go UMPOG at the down trend line- or breakout in a strong manner. but with the way BDO and BPI is moving.. hmm

Resistance: 82-85-90
Support: 80-77-75

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2. Secret Shabu Stock Room

secret stockShabunalysis:
Sellers here are the impatient nigros.. My conviction pick. At current levels definitely high REWARD – low RISK kind of trade 😉 Matter of time before this shiz erupts. Patience kids. Turnaround story baby.. A high probability one at that! 

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3. MWC

MWC chart
Shabunalysis: No one likes it, everyone scared, just got kicked out of PSEi w/all arbitrage bull shit, yet it was able to hold above 24.00? hehehe. What does that tell you? 🙂 Long term support pegged at 20-21, successfully held, that’s where AYALAs also increased their stake in the company. (around that range). This will go unappreciated now, but if my thesis is corrrect MWC is near-bottom levels, strong potential for growth in the future with their expansion in countries such as Vietnam, Myanmar etc etc. It may look foggy now with the arbitrary issue but I think it has already been priced in by the market. Even they announce that they lose the case, I think it’ll still hold above 20-21. but.. IF THEY WIN the case, then BOOM. check the GAP.

Resistance: 25-26, 28-30
Support: 23.50-24, 21-22.

EXTRA: If you like MWC then you should LOVE MPI 😉 kakatamad gumawa ng chart pero malakas MPI 😉 minimum 5.30-5.50. I have both names. 🙂

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There you go, these are my picks for the mean time, subscribe to my blog if you want to receive IMBANG KLASE’S SHABUNALYSIS.

Disclaimer: I am no guru, not a trading God, I make mistakes. I put my money where my mouth is. I have positions in all of these stocks. Don’t be too reliant and gullible OK? End of the day you are the one who executes your trades. Never be a sissy, don’t blame others if things don’t work out for you. My picks require patience. If you want one day wonders, one week wonders go eff yourself and go to the casino dude. or go all in the FX market 🙂