Monthly Archives: December 2013

Why the PSEi will reach 5400

Take a look at the relative performance of emerging markets, do you see anything in common? most of them were faded this year. Out-performers this year were developed markets. at this point we’re at the 6000 level, yet you can observe how willing foreigners are to dispose of their shares. EMs have been rallying wildly for the last few years, when everyone is just preaching about how good the economy is, how it’s so good to invest in the markets, how strong fundamentals are–specially when the most mediocre-minded people join in and preach complacently–then you got  a strong clue that the up-cycle is nearing its end. If 6000 was really an attractive level to put conviction money in, then it wouldn’t trade here for a long time, plus you would see positive/strong flows coming in more volume/interest perhaps, I know its vacation and all, but still even if you’re in vacation and you see a good trade/position you will take it, especially if you’re a fund manager always in the look for potential profits.

These numerous retests of the 6000 level just shows the whole perception/psychology of fund managers towards our country. At this point they don’t find the index significantly attractive. All I’m saying is be a little more careful. Screen your stock picks better, tighten your stop losses, manage the sizes of your positions bla bla bla you know the drill. Easy days are over. Put more effort into your investments.

Don’t be so used being lucky and being spoon fed, money made with effort feels more rewarding and fulfilling. Learn to trade other assets, currencies/commodities/businesses/drugs/poultry/chicks/etc. 

What happens when there’s NO REASON TO BUY? sooner or later, there will be more and more reasons to SELL. 🙂

Tell me what you think 🙂