Monthly Archives: November 2013

Hold Your Horses

Don’t expect any significant gains next year if you’re going long term in the PSEi specially if you’ve bought near 6400-6800. Overall corporate earnings deteriorating, banks won’t have easy trading gains anymore, thus pulling most CONGLO profits.. only a few names still standing strong like ALI & AGI. not that profits are bad, but they aren’t exemplary either, so don’t expect a magical bull run like that of 2012. Remember the stock market always thinks in advance, so if you’re wondering why foreigners are selling and selling and selling… maybe they’ve seen something that you haven’t, and they’re just willing to dispose shares at current levels. 

Funds are now shifting to more developed countries in Asia like China and Korea, trading at relatively cheaper levels compared to ASEAN peers. Also, if you notice, this year’s out-performers are mostly companies that have strong global exposure/impact/coverage such as tech companies in Japan & US. Sadly Philippines, does not have much say in that aspect, our story was focused on domestic consumption, growth, etc, which seems to be fading & is irrelevant to foreign players as of the moment.

What I’m seeing is they’re just happy to distribute their stock to you local peeps. If you’re a long term player, I suggest calm your balls, because now is not the time to place “conviction” money in a market like this. In my opinion, you need to just pick off at extreme sell downs, and sell the rallies moving forward. Be more selective of your picks. Whatever fundamentals you believe will be useless if the big hands do not support your view.

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