~Seize the Day

Hi everyone! It’s been a while since I last updated my blog as I was quite busy focusing on other endeavors, plus I found nothing interesting to write about just till now.

The last two weeks was definitely something as we saw our index go to new highs, but the real star of the show was APM, gaining about 300% in a span of 2 weeks. Wow another KABOOM stock this year adding up to the names MAKE, PXP, TDY, CAL, ORE, NI, DIZ, etc etc.. having watched all of the price action in these stocks, I feel like I have developed a feel for opportunities like this–or I may just have been lucky hehe. These rare moments, if well played, can definitely boost one’s portfolio immensely. Anyway, I’m thankful that I got lucky to ride APM, even though it was a bit late, profit is profit.

I bet the insiders are laughing their asses off with their immense profits, or are they? Not sure if the play here is finished but I can see that it was well distributed. The recent move in APM showed us that people are willing to buy into something that is deemed to be of immense value even if there’s no assurance yet. I remember DIZ‘s story.. hahaha. some people valuing it at 100 per share? Wow… Just wow. I wonder where they are now? Don’t be surprised with the irrationality of the market, from time to time, there will be stocks flying on a speculative basis alone.

Learn to ride the market’s emotions and sentiments. Know the players of the market. Watch the price action. Curb your greed. 

There are times when the crowd will feel scared to buy into something that hasn’t proven itself yet, eg. TDY at 5.00+, DIZ at 16+, APM at .30 to 40+, CAL at 10+, MAKE at 6+, etc. often times traders see stocks that seem scary because they don’t know the reason for its rise. With reason or not, one important thing to look at is the volume. You may not know why it is moving, but you’ll definitely see the degree of activity in the stock. After a long sleep, why would a stock suddenly spike in volume? Based on my observation, most of these double your money (or more) stocks still rise after its initial movements. Reason for this is that more and more speculators try to come up with an explanation, more and more stories are created, thus fueling the curiosity of the crowd. No one can get it perfect when it comes to moments like these. No guts, no glory.

When the market shows irrationality, step aside and try to be rational. This doesn’t mean that you should immediately shy away from the opportunity just because you have failed to identify sufficient fundamentals to support the price move. Just think of a stock as a “commodity”, and apply the basic principles of supply and demand. In short term bursts, the crowd doesn’t care at all, they will buy into any story that will “supposedly” lead them to their dreams. Emotions make the market fun and alive. Always think out of the box, destroy the box if you can. Be one step ahead of the crowd. 

Anyway, I think I’ve talked too much. Sorry, Insomniac mode I woke up at 2:30 AM lol and now, it’s almost 6:00 am.

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Here’s an update of my port on Oct 09, 2012– before APM went down:

Got lucky with APM lol. During it’s first ceiling I knew there was something, I was really thinking of going all in, or at least putting a bigger allocation, but I decided not too. Sold some tranches of APM at .090, but that was just a small portion of what I was holding, after reaching .10 the stock was sold down for a while and then came the halt (the OA Frozen thing) what ever that is. I think that stopped the buying momentum lol, it gave people time to think; “oohh wait a minute.. why the hell would I buy at .10…..?“. I was able to sell the rest at .077, lost some profits but it’s alright, profit is profit 🙂

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Here’s my port as of Oct 12, 2012:

1. ACR – Wait and see, certain developments interesting. It was mentioned by some of my idols. Bought initial position

2. ANS – Speculative and pure chart based play, I just bought a small position, digging deeper to back up my decision on whether to add or not.

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3. COAT – I like the charts broke it’s 52 week high of 2.75, and is now trending above that area. Lot’s of buy back disclosures from the company. I wonder what’s their plan. Volume seems to be building up. Looking forward to add more. From what I’ve gathered, this company is owned by D&L (http://www.dnl.com.ph/) which will have their IPO this 4th qtr, hmmm… Coincidence?

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4. EEI – nothing much to say here. same story. good stock. just holding. looking for opportunity to add. I feel stupid though for not holding this way back then when I had a bigger position in it at near 6.50. Shows that one should not be swayed by the short term fluctuations of the market, focus on the big picture. 

5. ELI – test buy. interested with the SRO thingy lol

6. GERI – this used to be my major holding, decided to dispatch it as it was performing weakly compared to blues and other plays. Strong selling pressure near 2.00’s, will have to wait for better signals to buy back into this baby. =)

7. GMA7/GMAP – Potential bounce psychological support at 8.00, building up position. May be “deemed” as an election play in the near future. =)

8. LPZ – just holding, almost all of its babies are getting attention. Charts look sucky but I think it should hold well. Giving it some more time. otherwise, cut if it shows further weakness
9. MEG – successfully broke the 2.33 level, after trying for quite some time. Willing to add more, if it shows positive action. MEG owns many office bldgs, it’s a beneficiary to our growing BPO industry, lot’s of new projects as well. It’s hovering near it’s 52 week highs. If we’re really bullish it should trend back and break 2.50, onward to a longer term target of 2.80+

10. PIP – as planned just holding till whenever. This still has lot’s of upside. This stock will help me practice my “investor” patience. I won’t sell this unless there’s a super crazy ass crisis out there, which of course I won’t be able to anticipate.  If you’ve been observing they have been bagging exclusivity contracts with mall developers (Star Mall and Robinson’s, if I’m not mistaken), these contracts will definitely be huge for the company as they try to reinforce their position in the market. I also tried their coco water product hahaha I kinda like the taste 🙂

11.VLL – for some crazy reason, I just feel like there’s potential in this stock. Just give it patience, trading at low a low PER compared to the market. I like the charts. Their starting to work on their malls, this’ll add value to the stock especially if their malls are a hit. Their housing projects are also strategically located near future infrastructure projects. Once these infra projects are developed there might be more people interested in living near these areas. Anyway, I’ve read a detailed report on this, I’ll just edit/add info in the future.

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That’s for my portfolio update. As you can see I’m testing out positions on lot’s of potential plays in the future. Definitely, not all of them will bloom but if they do I’ll try to build up my position in them if they show positive signs =)

Goodluck with trading everyone!

Please feel free to ask share your comments, insights, and suggestions. You may also ask me questions through the blog or in my FB page. Thanks!

Sometimes, it pays to be CRAZY.

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2 thoughts on “~Seize the Day

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