The Pain of Not Participating

Lot’s of plays this week, unfortunately I was too tied up with my positions, with my big allocation in AC and my illiquid stocks. I decided to trim on my holdings as I was losing money and opportunity due to my full positions.  I didn’t like the selling on SMPH, thus I sold at 13.80, likewise I was looking for some liquidity to position in GERI. I think I’m gonna regret selling SMPH, oh well I can always buy back if it shows strength. Sold ATNB at 3.30+, which I bought at 2.70’s. I took a loss trying to day trade TDY, good thing I cut early. Plus, I also took some losses by liquidating some of my speculatives.

Here’s my port as of August 04, 2012

I was a bit off this week, personal stuff bugging me, couldn’t concentrate in trading.  Likewise, stocks flying everywhere, CMT, EEI, TDY, ROCK, MJC, etc. made me a bit out of focus, thus me feeling the Pain of Not Participating. All I could do was watch as the opportunities went by, but I told myself that I can’t expect to catch EVERY dime. There’s always an opportunity out there, what’s important is preserving your capital so that when the time comes, you can reap the benefits. I should get a hold of myself and take a deep breath to control my pace. 🙂

Positions:

1. AC – still the same play, no need to explain. I expect this to go beyond 440 next week. *Crosses Fingers*. Had a rough ride this week went as low as 425, but I still believe that this will go boom soon, with the coming earnings report, GDP, etc. Almost all of its subsidiaries are good performers, check out ALI BPI MWC. If the babies are going higher, I bet their mom will soon.

  • Entry – 414
  • Stop Loss – watching 425 and 420
  • Target440 first, then 460

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2. GERI – Finally, I was able to get a position in GERI at an OK price. See macq and deutsche buying? GERI and CMT are small caps that these institutions like.

The company is owned by AGI, Andrew Tan’s group. They own 15% of the land mass in Boracay Islands. They have some projects in Tagaytay, if I’m not mistaken. They develop tourist spots and resorts, they are also selling condo units in their various establishments. Tourism is one of the main themes this year.  With the surge of Casinos in 2013, the construction of better infrastructure, particularly airports, expect that more and more tourists to fall in love with the Philippines. This is just my theory but if they go to the PH, ofc, they wouldn’t miss out on some of our most famous destinations, one of which is BORACAY, once more tourists set in, I expect their sales to go BOOM.

Imagine the number of foreigners looking for havens to retire in. Besides that, we are experiencing more and more BSP rate cuts which could entice more people to buy properties, although GERI is a bit far-off compared to ALI & MEG.

I wanted to buy this at 1.80 but I failed to do so, I was waiting for it to go at 1.90 but it didn’t, so instead of getting left out again like what happened to CMT, I already took position near 2.00.

Story intact, some investors panicked because Lim Asia (whoever that is) converted their warrants to 68million shares. Actually, that’s a good sign, they converted because they know the potential of the company. Some people might have thought that by converting they will now be able to sell their shares. I think they’ll be holding this until the stock fully flourishes. I expect them to have a good earnings report this second half.

See the charts below, this stock has broken out of its 1 year downtrend. Although I couldn’t show you the whole 1 year, I’m a noob in chart configurations, but I hope you see the big picture. It bounced after hitting the line trend line at 1.94, goes to show that there buyers out there (ehem Deutsche + Macq) taking care of their this precious gem. 🙂

  • Entry – 2.00
  • Stop Loss – I’m willing to buy more at the 1.90 level, I’ll be watching 1.88 to 1.85, if those levels break then off I go
  • Target – Easy 2.20 for me, then 2.40, then 100 LOL kidding. =) Again, I expect this to move soon just like what CMT did! (arrgghh can’t get over lol)

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3. LOTO – Saw interesting volume, and some buying action here. My analysis is simple, more and more people play LOTTO. They have outlets integrated in every SM branch in the Philippines, as we all know they’re consistently expanding. Might be onto a move, with its earning report as its catalyst. This is in the same category as WEB for me. Not much to say here, let’s just watch.

  • Entry – 14.06
  • Stop Loss – This one’s different since its not that actively traded. I’m watching 13.80.
  • Target – Let’s see if it sets out to 14.50

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4. PIP – Just holding to this one, it’s a bit tempting to take profits since it yielded 20% for me already, but I think this stock will still grow till next year. I’ll probably be making this a long term commitment. I’m even thinking of adding more. Can’t wait to get rid of AC at the right price LOL

  • Entry – 2.80, 
  • Stop Loss – I’m willing to buy more at 3.00
  • Target – Just like RFM I think this’ll reach 4.00

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I just got rid of 2 of my speculative positions out of liquidity issues, but then It seems that the other one.. located in CEBU.. is getting interesting.. I might buy back with a bigger position hopefully some one sells down! It’s really hard to balance on positions if almost all of them has the potential, I guess one should have no favorites or biases in the stock market.

Please do not treat my posts as guides or whatever, I am not a professional trader, I just go by my simple means of analysis and gut feel. 🙂

There are lots of plays opportunities out there, just keep calm, we all have our own time to shine <– message to myself.

At the end of the day, it’s not whether you like the company or not, it’s whether you can make money out of em.

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