Monthly Archives: August 2012

Torn Apart

Wow. With some careless trades, I’m now back to 872k, my total equity value when I posted back in July 24, 2012. I got impatient with my positions in inactive trash stocks that I decided to sell down even if it meant taking 20% losses. The bid and offer spread of those stocks were really far-off. I just realized that its not my style playing stocks that have no catalysts that I am aware of.

Anyway, past is past, I had no problem taking that 30k lost, even though it was a mistake being impatient and selling down instead of just waiting to get hit in my posts.  I was just really uncomfortable being stuck in those positions while seeing lots of trading opportunities.  Now I realize the importance of liquidity.  If you’re an active trader, you should always make it a point that if things go wrong and there are better opportunities–you have to be able to switch positions in a jiffy.

It’s not bad to position in inactive stocks, but you have to make a commitment before you take position in them.  One must have a longer time frame, and the willingness to let his/her money sleep in these kinds of stocks.  In my case, I’m not yet ready for these kinds of positions as I prefer to be in control of my port in cases where something might go wrong.

These past weeks, I haven’t been trading much.  It’s hard to focus on trading when you have personal (and STRESSFUL) things to tend to. Lot’s of bounce plays DIZ, ORE, EDC, PX, ACE congrats to those who profited from those trades.

Here’s my port as of August 16, 2012:


Positions:

1. AC – was sold down probably because of their over-the-top bid on the FTI lot. Is their huge bid reasonable or not? They seem to give immense value and priority in the property.  The question is WHY? Well for one, the FTI lot is very near to the Fort Bonifacio Global City.  The development of that lot would pretty much create synergies for them in the future. From what I’ve heard, they plan on replicating what they did on the fort (you know how ALI develops properties) to the FTI lot.

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2. EEI -Was watching this stock since 6.50 and somehow I didn’t want to get left out so I decided to take position.  My entry was a bit off at 7.69 and now its at 7.28.  I think this stock can be a surprise. I remember William J. O’Neil (author of How to Make Money in Stocks), talking about entering stocks that are on its all time high, with huge quarterly growth. Check out his CANSLIM criteria. Basically, it looks for stocks that show strength for consecutive periods, and I see that EEI is one of them. Company is also looking forward to PPP bids, and the like, which may show potential upsides in the future. Let’s see how the 7.00 mark holds.

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3. GERI – This stock went as low as 1.84 lol by that time I should’ve cut already, but I decided not to take action since I’ve noticed that MACQ, UBS, and Deutsche was still buying the stock.  Of course, as an institutional buyer, you wouldn’t want to move the stock up immediately if you were accumulating it.  I’m willing to give this position more time.

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4. LOTO – trimmed a bit on this stock, it’s now at 14.50, planning to sell more soon.

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5. MEG – took my initial position on MEG. Although it had a mediocre (+15%) Q2 earnings report, I still believe in this play. One of the cheapest property stocks in terms of P/E. I also like its charts. The position requires patience though, I don’t expect it to manifest immediately.  By the way, MEG owns part or majority of ELI.

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6. MPI – I like this stock fundamentally. Strong 1H earnings at +76%.  This stock is a good exposure to utilities plus potential upsides in infrastructure plays. Likewise, they have partnerships with AC in some bids. It seems that funds are accumulating it, there’s just this resistance at the 4.20+ levels. Looking forward to add more here. Various brokers have up’ed their ratings for this stock 🙂

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7. PIP – Added on my position here making my AEP at 3.10. Just holding on this stock wherever it seeks to go. One of the most high performing stocks in terms of quarterly growth. Definitely meets the CANSLIM criteria.

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That’s for my positions. Hmm, looking at my port, it seems that I’m more of an investor right now instead of a trader. Almost all of my positions are fundamentally sound.  This will definitely test my patience. I’m thinking of trimming my positions or just waiting it out till September, which I believe will show potential opportunities.  I didn’t place any of my cut loss points as I’m thinking of  holding it out for about 1 month and see where it’ll bring me.  I want to try sticking to my positions for the medium term, but I’m a bit torn as well. Hmm, maybe I’ll try a 50/50 port, half for trading and half for medium to long term positions. I’ll also re-assess my port as I’m currently on 170k margin. I definitely need more cash.

BTW, I’m seeing famous investors/speculators abroad increasing their exposure to gold and oil. Chart looks good for gold, while oil seems to rise steadily. Might pose some opportunities in the future. I’ll be on the watch for mining and oil stocks.

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Re-planning

I’ve noticed that i’m kinda shifting away from my consistent style of trading. I need to re-plan my port, and re-assess my style. Due to my commitments in some sleeping stocks, I’m encountering troubles with riding other stocks. I have to balance my port, since there are lots of potential plays, it’s probably good to minimize on my speculatives, and focus on fundamentals first. Besides, I think we’re onto something once the earnings of the big companies arrive, plus once the PH GDP is announced, and it goes beyond expectation again, I think that’ll entice more funds to bank on companies that have good growth prospects.

Reminder to self:

1. Choose which stocks to dispose, and which to keep. Kill the laggards, play the leaders and the stars. Probably gonna sell my speculatives 1/4th at a time this week. I effing need cash!

For reference, looking forward to position on the ff:

1. MEG

2. EEI

3. MPI

A Radical View on the Church’s Opposition of the RH Bill

http://www.mydailyrace.com/?p=2376 <— What the RH Bill is All About

Above is a link of Ms. Pia Cayetano‘s post regarding what the RH Bill really is. read FYI. Getting pissed of religious entities trying to influence the government with socio-economic irrationality. What’s more irritating is that some IGNORANT people in twitter think that the harsh rain is God’s means to punish the Philippines for its pursuit of the implementation of the RH Bill. Di  ba nila alam na yung pinaka-naapektuhan dito yung populasyon ng mga mahihirap? Ang populasyon na nabuo dahil sa kakulangan sa kaalaman tungkol sa Family Planning?

Can’t they see the bigger picture of things? The world doesn’t revolve on blindly following what the bible says. If that were the case then ALL PRIESTs and SEMINARIANs should be asked to “Go Forth and Multiply” as well. How come you guys abstain yourselves from helping “God’s” vision?  Why don’t you lead the frontier and take action, instead of uttering mere words? If you want people to believe what you preach, practice it. I wonder if these people who go about “pro-life”, showing no concern regarding the magnitude of our population’s rise, realize how it is in the slums where most of the poor people have lots of babies and barely survive because they are unable to provide for them.

Clearly there are lots of conflicts in the Bible, and I beg to disagree, when they say that life as we know of today should be based on this literature alone. There are even extreme statements there stating that “man should not lie with his own, otherwise he shall feel the fires of hell” or something like that. This statement means that Homosexuals shall be burned to death, but where are homosexuals now in our society? They are free. Some of them are even in the CHURCH for crying out loud! This shows that the complexity of life is beyond the dictates of any literature, especially one that was composed thousands of years ago.

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Another thing… I read something about some religious entity saying that “P-Noy won because of their support”, “we have 6 million votes with us”, etc, SO WHAT ARE THESE ENTITIES TRYING TO SAY? In the most basic sense, I translate it as BLACKMAIL. These kinds of messages, reminding P-Noy of the support that they have given him, is like asking for a sense of gratitude. To be frank, repayment.

They expect P-Noy to adhere to their wants because of the support that they have given him?? All I can say is PATHETIC. What happened to the teachings of Jesus regarding giving without expecting anything in return? LOL

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“You are killing babies with the use of contraceptives”, “This bill will kill our nation”. It’s as if the population will really be killed if we pursue this bill. Does the Anti-RH group support the massive rise of our population, whereas the biggest families actually belong to the marginalized? Yes, we can say that the Filipino population is huge, but what percentage of that population live comfortably and are able to support themselves?

RH Bill gives those who are concerned an option. It doesn’t seek to enforce. It isn’t about implementing rules nor a strict lifestyle, it’s about giving the people a CHOICE by spreading AWARENESS. Unfortunately, it seems that the Catholic Church is against FREEDOM and AWARENESS. They tend to contradict anything that is against their beliefs. NOT ALL FILIPINOS ARE CATHOLIC. Again this shows freedom of choice, and the diversity that life offers to us. We should not be bounded by the ideologies of any single entity. 

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In no way am I affiliated with P-Noy, but I actually salute him for having the courage and standing for what’s right for our countrymen. I am a Catholic myself, but when I see this amount of bullshit, damn.. No offense to all those who are religious, or to the Anti-RH people, but you guys should understand what life is all about, it is beyond the enclosure of what religion dictates to us. Try looking around and think of the stature of the country holistically. Pro life nga, ang daming ngang mga bata, di naman mapalaki ng maayos, nagiging criminal, nagugutom, kulang sa education, walang tirahang matino, gusto nyo pa lalo paramihin? Oo nabuhay nga sila at tumungtong sa mundong to, pero tingen nyo sa nararanasan ng maraming mahihirap ngayon hindi ba’t parang pinapatay na rin sila dahan dahan sa hirap ng buhay?Dapat may balanse, yung rami ng tao ay dapat kaya supportahan ng i-straktura ng bansa. 

Funny thing is that the Philippines is the only Catholic practitioners in Asia but we are heralded as one of the most corrupt, before P-Noy entered the scene. Another thing would be the fact that the teachings of the Bible preach all about peace, loving one another, but history has proved us the opposite. Religion has been the source of many WARS, Killings, Prosecutions, Hunting of so-called “witches” and what have you, all for the sake of enforcing the teachings of the church. Ironic huh?

I suggest reading about Plato’s Allegory of the Cave. People think they know of the truth, but from the start, the “so-called” truth has been fed to them because they are only allowed to look in one direction. The truth can only be discovered once you have dared to take a look at the directions you never knew existed. 

I dare all those who are Anti-RH Bill to do as they say and “go forth and multiply”. Inconsiderate Hypocrites. That’s all.

The Pain of Not Participating

Lot’s of plays this week, unfortunately I was too tied up with my positions, with my big allocation in AC and my illiquid stocks. I decided to trim on my holdings as I was losing money and opportunity due to my full positions.  I didn’t like the selling on SMPH, thus I sold at 13.80, likewise I was looking for some liquidity to position in GERI. I think I’m gonna regret selling SMPH, oh well I can always buy back if it shows strength. Sold ATNB at 3.30+, which I bought at 2.70’s. I took a loss trying to day trade TDY, good thing I cut early. Plus, I also took some losses by liquidating some of my speculatives.

Here’s my port as of August 04, 2012

I was a bit off this week, personal stuff bugging me, couldn’t concentrate in trading.  Likewise, stocks flying everywhere, CMT, EEI, TDY, ROCK, MJC, etc. made me a bit out of focus, thus me feeling the Pain of Not Participating. All I could do was watch as the opportunities went by, but I told myself that I can’t expect to catch EVERY dime. There’s always an opportunity out there, what’s important is preserving your capital so that when the time comes, you can reap the benefits. I should get a hold of myself and take a deep breath to control my pace. 🙂

Positions:

1. AC – still the same play, no need to explain. I expect this to go beyond 440 next week. *Crosses Fingers*. Had a rough ride this week went as low as 425, but I still believe that this will go boom soon, with the coming earnings report, GDP, etc. Almost all of its subsidiaries are good performers, check out ALI BPI MWC. If the babies are going higher, I bet their mom will soon.

  • Entry – 414
  • Stop Loss – watching 425 and 420
  • Target440 first, then 460

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2. GERI – Finally, I was able to get a position in GERI at an OK price. See macq and deutsche buying? GERI and CMT are small caps that these institutions like.

The company is owned by AGI, Andrew Tan’s group. They own 15% of the land mass in Boracay Islands. They have some projects in Tagaytay, if I’m not mistaken. They develop tourist spots and resorts, they are also selling condo units in their various establishments. Tourism is one of the main themes this year.  With the surge of Casinos in 2013, the construction of better infrastructure, particularly airports, expect that more and more tourists to fall in love with the Philippines. This is just my theory but if they go to the PH, ofc, they wouldn’t miss out on some of our most famous destinations, one of which is BORACAY, once more tourists set in, I expect their sales to go BOOM.

Imagine the number of foreigners looking for havens to retire in. Besides that, we are experiencing more and more BSP rate cuts which could entice more people to buy properties, although GERI is a bit far-off compared to ALI & MEG.

I wanted to buy this at 1.80 but I failed to do so, I was waiting for it to go at 1.90 but it didn’t, so instead of getting left out again like what happened to CMT, I already took position near 2.00.

Story intact, some investors panicked because Lim Asia (whoever that is) converted their warrants to 68million shares. Actually, that’s a good sign, they converted because they know the potential of the company. Some people might have thought that by converting they will now be able to sell their shares. I think they’ll be holding this until the stock fully flourishes. I expect them to have a good earnings report this second half.

See the charts below, this stock has broken out of its 1 year downtrend. Although I couldn’t show you the whole 1 year, I’m a noob in chart configurations, but I hope you see the big picture. It bounced after hitting the line trend line at 1.94, goes to show that there buyers out there (ehem Deutsche + Macq) taking care of their this precious gem. 🙂

  • Entry – 2.00
  • Stop Loss – I’m willing to buy more at the 1.90 level, I’ll be watching 1.88 to 1.85, if those levels break then off I go
  • Target – Easy 2.20 for me, then 2.40, then 100 LOL kidding. =) Again, I expect this to move soon just like what CMT did! (arrgghh can’t get over lol)

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3. LOTO – Saw interesting volume, and some buying action here. My analysis is simple, more and more people play LOTTO. They have outlets integrated in every SM branch in the Philippines, as we all know they’re consistently expanding. Might be onto a move, with its earning report as its catalyst. This is in the same category as WEB for me. Not much to say here, let’s just watch.

  • Entry – 14.06
  • Stop Loss – This one’s different since its not that actively traded. I’m watching 13.80.
  • Target – Let’s see if it sets out to 14.50

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4. PIP – Just holding to this one, it’s a bit tempting to take profits since it yielded 20% for me already, but I think this stock will still grow till next year. I’ll probably be making this a long term commitment. I’m even thinking of adding more. Can’t wait to get rid of AC at the right price LOL

  • Entry – 2.80, 
  • Stop Loss – I’m willing to buy more at 3.00
  • Target – Just like RFM I think this’ll reach 4.00

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I just got rid of 2 of my speculative positions out of liquidity issues, but then It seems that the other one.. located in CEBU.. is getting interesting.. I might buy back with a bigger position hopefully some one sells down! It’s really hard to balance on positions if almost all of them has the potential, I guess one should have no favorites or biases in the stock market.

Please do not treat my posts as guides or whatever, I am not a professional trader, I just go by my simple means of analysis and gut feel. 🙂

There are lots of plays opportunities out there, just keep calm, we all have our own time to shine <– message to myself.

At the end of the day, it’s not whether you like the company or not, it’s whether you can make money out of em.