Monthly Archives: July 2012

Goal Achieved — what’s next?

It’s been about 1 week since my last report. From 872k last week, my port is now 927k.

Here’s what boosted me.

1. AC – as stated last week, this was low risk – medium reward play for me. The sell off was due to the crowd’s negative reaction to the numerous private placements (ALI, PGOLD, AC) all in 1 week. Fundamentals never changed for this stock. This is one of the most prestigious companies in the PHIL. One can see that there is a premium in terms of the valuations on Ayala led stocks particularly ALI and AC because investors see strong growth potential. The management of AC is solid, and unlike other companies, they are more transparent. I haven’t heard of any negative issues or scandals that the group has taken part off. With its coming earnings report, together with possible PPP announcements in the future, I’m not quite sure if I’m holding this position for the medium term. The charts and the price action shall guide me with this decision.

Entry – 414

Stop Loss – I’ll be watching breaks on the 430, 428, and lastly the 425 levels. I’m thinking of loosening my stops here as I think that this is a solid position to be in.

Target Price – I believe that this’ll go easily at 440? We’ll see depending on how fast. If all things go well this’ll be an easy 460 for me. One thing to take note here would be my greed and risk appetite. It’s really hard to get perfect profits in your trades, I have missed lots of opportunities before selling prematurely, thinking that I should be curbing my greed instead of trying to sit it out and ride the trend. One of the toughest challenges in trading for me would be to find balance between Jesse Livermore’s: “it’s the sitting that made me money, not the thinking” and the notion of “curbing your greed” and “it’s never bad to take profits”.  Anyway, we’ll see how this trade fares.

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2. ATNB – I’ll reveal this stock already since it’s actually quite exposed and active now.  I just bought this based on ATN’s price action, I initially bought ATN at 2.20’s and then sold at 2.40’s. That sucked right? Again, I failed to ride the trend and missed some profits. So when I saw that ATN’s trend was intact, definitely its brother would suit to follow, so I immediately bought up ATNB lol, I didn’t know that it would go up this high thus the small allocation. Oh well, as long as I’m earning money. There was a sell down on ATN a while a go to 2.75, but ATNB did not follow, hmm insiders seem to still buy this stock, so I guess I’ll hold this one out. 🙂 hmm for experiments sakes I might try holding this and making my stops loosen up till like 3.00 or 2.90, just for the sake of experimenting on the effectiveness of sitting out the volatility in hopes of riding the larger trend.

Entry – 2.74

Stop Loss – 3.20

Target – 4.00 onwards

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3. PIP – As you can see my portfolio is really squeezed out. I’m using almost full margins right now, damn, there’s so many plays, and I don’t know how to capitalize on all of em. Saw accumulation on this stock, and I think that this was a perfect ninja play because one of the main themes of Philippine’s is the “consumption plays” right? RFM, PGOLD, TDY, SMB, SEVN, SMPH etc. all of these stocks had good run-ups already, except SMPH which is hopefully having its own right now. Unlike RFM and the alcohol companies, PIP is a staple brand, I mean, it’s coke’s competitor in the country. It also has Gatorade and other drinks. It also has its snack subsidiaries. Anyway, I am not a hardcore fundamentalist, to research all of these, I just relied on common sense and its chart. Likewise, this stock was definitely accumulated during the 2.80’ish level. The recent run up to 2.90 was a confirmatory signal for me although, I did not take any action as I did not know the full capability of this play. I actually trimmed on this one from about 90k to 60’ish. Volume is really high. This might be one of the stocks that I’ll hold for the long term.

Entry – 2.8o’s

Stop Loss – I don’t know if I’ll put a stop loss on this one lol this is definitely a long term buy for me, any dips near 3 or even 2.90s would be a buy for me.

Target – wherever it brings me. wahahaha!

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4. SMPH – consumption… consumption.. consumption… hahahaha it’s one of the main themes this year. Ask yourself, where does majority of consumers go? In malls right? 🙂 I know that the play on SMPH is bound to come, several brokers have upped their target valuations for this one to the 16.00 levels.  I saw the chart, I do not claim to be an expert technician but I can see beyond the charts and the crowd’s sentiments.  I tend to look at the psychology of what’s actually happening to the stock. I was really urging to buy it as I remembered “genkumag”, one of the skilled trader-bloggers here in PH, say; “trade what you see, not what you wish to believe” or something like that. Point is, its more of an inclination on trading using what you see on the charts and the price action. For me this was a good buy based on that ideology. I was having a hard time to amass the funds to buy this stock, as I was fully invested. So, I trimmed my AC and sold all of my MPI (even though I like MPI a lot! huhu. I even think that it’ll have a run up, given the strong performance of MER and perhaps maybe its other subsidiaries as well), and bought all of it into SMPH. Good think it went as expected. It broke 14 but was sold down again. SMPH has been going up and down for quite some time, let’s see if its about time that it flies past 14.50. 2 straight days of foreign buying on this one.

Entry – 13.60’s

Stop Loss – 13.50, 13.40,

Target – Break 14.50 first then we’ll see.

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Reflection for the week:

One of the challenges that I am encountering as of the moment is the ability to sit out on my positions and have the confidence of riding the trends. Take note, I started trading only this January with about 50k, and my capital only became 600k during April, so that’s about 2 months of practice on a small amount and then 3-4 months of action with the full capital. Well luckily, I am able to identify potential plays consistently. I do commit mistakes, a lot of them, but I am relentless in admitting them, I bought GEO for .66 only to watch it drag down to .60, I immediately sold at .61 and took 6k loss. I guess one of my strengths would be the ability to take losses. On the other hand, I need to improve on my ability to sit my ass tight and watch my profits grow. I missed lots of opportunities but I guess as long as I am steadily increasing my port, I am doing “quite” a right thing. By “quite”, I mean “pwede na”.

I am not yet satisfied with my performance as a trader, and surely I am on the looks for ways to improve myself. What’s fun in trading is that no one gets it perfect all of the time, we are all bound to commit mistakes. I guess this applies in any endeavor. Perhaps my inability, to stay put on my position is due to the fact that I minimize on my risk, and I tend to sell when I feel like the price level of the stock has already reached a risky point. An example would be WEB. I placed half of my port on WEB seeing that it was a strong reversal with high volume. The problem with that stock was there’s no consistent bidders, it seems like the accumulators or the operators are driving the price to a certain level but they are doing it slowly. On a position like that it was hard to get out immediately in case of a panic or a sell down, since the buyers do not post good bids. I sold my 12.90 entry WEB position at 14.76, to secure my gain of 13%. Hmm.. and right now looking at it, it’s still trending higher at 15.50. Again, missed some potential profits, but it was a risky play for me since there where not much bids. I want to feel control of my positions, and not rely on jocks to take me where they want to go. Anyway, I’ll just have to do study and reflect more to improve on myself as a trader. 🙂

Anyway, I’ll be posting regularly about my thoughts and my performance in the stock market. I have achieved my goal of reaching 1m in capital, equity value is 927k now, plus my withdrawal of 80k, so that makes my total equity 1,007,000 if I hadn’t withdrawn my money.  Anyway, I guess the next step would be to actually reach that 1m mark even without the 80k I withdrew. Let’s see how August goes. I am not afraid of ghosts! Rawr! :p

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Imbang Klase Quote of the week:

“Leaders choose the right decisions without resorting to what is accepted by the majority. In any endeavor, only a few become great, because only a few are brave enough to stand alone a midst the uncertainty “

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A Little Kid’s Journey to a Million Pesos

It’s About Time

                From now on, I will be writing reports about all my trades. As part of my serious development as a trader, I’ll be taking note of my reasons for each transaction, analysis, charts, stories, etc. I’ll also be attaching a picture of my portfolio, just for fun, so that I could also monitor my performance. I’ll be exposing all of the stocks I trade and the values that I allot for each stock. I will censor transactions on illiquid stocks since these stocks are more risky and I don’t want anyone to follow my moves for these kinds of stocks. I am looking forward to share my experiences with you guys. Hopefully, this blog can be an avenue where Filipino traders can gain insights and valuable lessons. My main goal is to make my current equity value (excluding margins ofcourse), which is currently at 872k to the 1 million mark soon. Let’s see how this goes.


Trades for the day:

1. AC– saw a potential reversal, people bought it when it reached the 405 level. From what I saw, RSI is already oversold. Based on past reactions, AC has a high probability of bouncing up when it reaches the oversold levels. I believe that it is bound to go up soon, maybe a few more down days perhaps. It went as high as 421, only to be sold down again by foreign houses such as UBS, and other guys. I feel that it’s attractive enough to buy at these levels since the main reason for its downfall would be the private placement, without the private placement I believe that this stock would still be at 440 to 450. The chances of this stock to go down in the short term would be possible if there is a negative catalyst that would really push foreigners to sell. Otherwise, I believe that this is a good short-term trade both technically and fundamentally.

  • Entry – 414
  • Stop Loss – still under observation tomorrow, I can go tight at 410, or loose at 390. The thing about AC is that you can bank on it for the long term, unless we have a super duper effin negative catalyst that would hit the whole financial system again, I’d be buying more of this at the 380 levels, again everything is under observation.
  • Sell Point – Depends on the reaction of the psei, I can be tight at 425 to 430, or loose at about 440’ish

2. New stock – I’m seeing some accumulation by certain jock brokers. Chartwise, it seems to be possibly breaking out of its long term down trend. Take note that I don’t want to expose plays like this because these stocks are illiquid and are deemed to be risky. The fundamentals of this stock is also unproven, it may be reversed if its management is able to synergize it with future acquisitions 🙂

Note from Imbangklase: This blog mainly serves as my journal and is not to be considered as a guide or what-so-ever. I am hoping that we can all learn from my profits and my losses though. Trade responsibly. Nothing great was ever achieved easily, remember that.